IP Addresses Will Expire by 2010

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Internet IPToday another big issue arises in front of governments, who must take actions to deal with the internet address crisis that brings fears to the internet economy, which in its turn will freeze as numbers come to an end in 2010-2011.

 

This week several ministers from the OECD telecommunications, including representatives from the Australia's Senator Stephen Conroy, are meeting in Seoul. They have been informed that there is only 16 percent of space from the list of IP addresses that remains unallocated.

 

According to the OECD briefing paper: "The situation is critical because all new users connecting to the internet, and all businesses that require IP addresses for their growth, will be affected by the lack of readily available IP version 4.0 addresses."

 

As a replacement, global users have to apply to an improved platform, IPv6, which will significantly enlarge the internet space to about 340 trillion trillion trillion separate IP addresses. These addresses are going to support broadband applications, devices connected to the internet, smart sensor networks, as well as new services. The federal Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, located in Australia, is currently working on the analysis regarding the readiness of local networks for the new IPv6. In 2007 the Australian Government Information Management Office (AGIMO) launched a strategy that will allow government agencies to pass to IPv6 by 2015.

 

"In planning for IPv6, agencies will need to manage issues similar to those faced by industry such as the need to develop a sound business case. By managing the process early and collectively, agencies will be able to better align and synchronize their programs, manage technical risks and optimize procurement arrangements," said the spokesman for AGIMO.

 

Specialists like Geoff Huston, who holds the position of chief scientist of the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (institution that controls address allocation in the region), are still not sure whether to call the situation "a challenge" or "a crisis".

 

"The simple observation is that we really should be well into a transition across the entire industry by now, and we are nowhere near that point. This somewhat unexpected position appears to be based on today's business structure. We have lost any real capacity to perform advance funding of goods and services that we think will be required by customers in the future," said Geoff Huston. He added that in case the customer base doesn't like the new idea and it will not pay for IPv6 then "whatever it is does not get manufactured and does not get delivered. And that's where IPv6 is today."

 

According to Mr. Huston, it was never intended for the technical issue to be revealed to the public. It was the sizes of business that made it hard to keep the problem invisible.

 

"The larger ISPs, such as Telstra, have done some experimentation and prototyping and while ISPs aren't operating IPv6 as a commercial offering, there is general awareness and capability," he said.

 

"The smaller ISPs are in a wait-and-see position. Their customers tend to be small to medium-size business users, and they simply do not see this as part of their requirements at present," he added.

 

At the end of 2007 the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) warned that there were only 700 million unallocated IPv4 addresses from a total number of 4.3 billion addresses. It is worth mentioning that the IPv4 was adopted three decades ago, when less than 500 hosts were linked to the Internet. Back then the majority of users had technical knowledge and Internet was fully non-commercial. Currently over 500 million hosts are connected to the internet, which is continuously enlarging, with 1.3 billion of users having internet access.

 

Despite the fact that engineers came up with a solution back in 1996, the implementation was impeded by the fact that the two systems are not directly compatible. During the process of transition the two systems have to run in parallel. Thus in 1996 there were technical and cost issues. In case the transition is delayed, IPv6 skills shortage might come into play, thus having a negative impact on the Defense requirements for top levels of interoperability with strategic allies.

The spokesman for DBCDE said: "… a hurried, unplanned and uncontrolled implementation of IPv6 equipment into government networks could create equally significant risks, resulting in system failures and loss of service capability. Moreover, at this time we are not aware that there is a systemic threat to the internet from exhaustion of IPv4."

 

"This is why we're developing an orderly transition strategy, and we would encourage a similarly strategic approach for industry," he added.

 

The president of the Internet Society of Australia, Tony Hill, mentioned that the biggest trading partners, including Japan, China and Korea are ready for the implementation of IPv6, which serves as the main reason why the adoption should take place as soon as possible.

 

"If you want to do business with Asia, you have to make sure you've got an IPv6-enabled website," said Mr. Hill. "It's a pressing concern, because those nations are building new networks that are IPv6-only," he added.

 

According to Tony Hill the strategy used by Australia had a good base, but its due date is too late, meaning that the IPv4 numbers are going to run out very soon. "If address exhaustion occurs by 2010, there's an urgency that focuses the mind. That's an issue we'd like to debate with (Communications Minister) Stephen Conroy," stated Mr. Hill.

 

In order for the economy to register a continuous development, there is a need for a long-lasting and freely available source of addresses. The idea was provided by economists in an OECD report. The president of the Internet Society of Australia outlined that the current situation is extremely important, which is why governments must engage in the policy dimensions. Experts consider that the changeover could be quite costly, but according to Tony Hill, sellers of network equipment knew about the upcoming problem and thus the IPv6 capability have been incorporated into equipment about a decade ago.

 

"Most network owners will probably find they have existing capability that's not switched on. Conversion will need management and good network skills, but it also offers the potential for new approaches to security and new ways of doing business," said Mr. Hill.

 

 

 

 

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